We base our economic analysis on the use of leading economic indicators, which provide a disciplined method for following economic trends. Along with our in-house research efforts, we utilize the work of the preeminent business cycle forecasting firm in the world, Economic Cycle Research Institute ("ECRI"). We have worked closely with the ECRI researchers since the mid-1990's when we first formulated this investment strategy.

Our analysis does not endeavor to forecast specific economic levels such as GDP growth, inflation rates, or unemployment; rather, our goal is to monitor broad economic trends and to identify changes in direction of those major trends. Opportunities to enhance investment returns frequently are available when the economic environment is shifting due to the close link between the financial markets and the economy.